Election Year in Virginia May Again Signal GOP is Sticking with Xenophobic Messaging

2021 is an election yr in Virginia with Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Lawyer Normal and all 100 seats within the Home of Delegates on the poll. Republicans will decide the nominees for his or her social gathering’s prime workplaces this weekend at a conference whereas Democrats will select theirs by means of a main on June 8.

As voters begin to make these choices, this week, the Wason Heart for Civic Management at Christopher Newport College launched a ballot of Virginia voters, which discovered “A big majority of Virginia voters assist/strongly assist offering a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants at present within the U.S. (73%), whereas a good bigger majority assist a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants introduced right here as youngsters (78%).” The ballot evaluation additionally famous, “majorities in each events present assist for offering undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship.” For Democrats, assist/strongly assist is 89%, with Republicans, it’s 55% and independents are at 84%. For a pathway to citizenship for “Dreamers” Democrats are at 91% assist/strongly assist, Republicans at 62%, and independents are at 86%.

These are very robust numbers, nearly as good and even higher than nationwide polls, and present a robust consensus for immigrants and immigration reform in Virginia.

Towards that backdrop, Virginia Republicans are selecting their nominee for the 2021 Governor’s race. Seven candidates are vying for that position, which can be determined by a conference of 53,000 social gathering activists. It’s already clear that fealty to Donald Trump and the “huge lie,” plus continued assaults on immigrants, are an integral a part of Virginia (and nationwide) Republican messaging.

In early March, Pete Snyder, whose campaign is co-chaired by Ken Cuccinelli among others, launched an advert with an anti-immigrant message, that includes pictures of “violent illegals” which have appeared in GOP advertisements for the previous few years. He additionally lately touted the endorsement of “the leaders of Trump’s immigration workforce.”

And, then there’s State Senator Amanda Chase who’s Virginia’s model of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump wrapped into one extremist. Different prime candidates are government Glenn Youngkin, who was endorsed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Delegate Kirk Cox, who served as Speaker of the Home of Delegates till Democrats took management within the 2019 elections. 

The sphere additionally consists of retired Military Colonel Sergio de la Peña, who served as former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Protection within the Trump administration. Octavia Johnson who was Sheriff of Roanoke Metropolis 2006-2013, and Peter Doran, founder and Chairman of Let’s Win, Virginia!

Clearly, Republicans are conscious they’ve acquired issues, notably in vote-rich – and really numerous – Northern Virginia. At a latest discussion board, the candidates defined how they had been going to make a dent within the rising Democratic margins. Former GOP State Delegate David Ramadan defined the problem to DCist, “[The convention] will solely be attended by the hardcore base. And to be able to win that, the candidates are catering to points that won’t work within the basic elections and due to this fact being pro-Trump, being anti-immigration, being important of the varsity techniques, being important of the COVID-19 protections and measures that the governor has taken,” he says. “All of those are points that the common voter cares about and places the Republicans at odds with that voters and due to this fact unlikely to have the ability to win any statewide elections any time quickly.”

That article went on to notice, “The same dynamic bedeviled Republican contender Ed Gillespie in his 2017 race in opposition to Northam; whereas he was lengthy generally known as a average and establishment-minded member of the GOP, he ran additional to the correct after a bruising main battle with Corey Stewart by specializing in points like Accomplice monuments and immigration.”

Precisely. 

The 2017 Virginia’s governor’s race was the preliminary instance of an anti-immigrant technique backfiring badly on Republican candidates within the Trump period. It was the primary statewide election within the Trump presidency and the GOP nominee, Ed Gillespie, who was seen as an “institution” Republican, was pulled to the correct throughout a contested main with long-time xenophobe Corey Stewart. Gillespie, who was anticipated to win the nomination handily, defeated Stewart by beneath 5,000 votes, a margin of 43.71% to 42.53%. 

Throughout the basic election, as an alternative of transferring to the middle in a state that had been trending blue, Gillespie doubled down on the anti-immigrant assaults. His marketing campaign’s advertisements tried to make use of the specter of the US-founded worldwide gang MS-13 because the lens to view all Latino immigrants and tried to say that Democratic candidate Ralph Northam was weak on crime. Gillespie pressed the difficulty attacking ‘sanctuary cities’, of which there are none within the state. 

Within the lead-up to election day, political observers and pundits, together with Steve Ok. Bannon, believed Gillespie’s technique would work — and would function a mannequin for different Republicans. “Corey Stewart is the explanation Gillespie goes to win,” Bannon, the previous White Home chief strategist and Trump’s marketing campaign czar, stated in an interview. “It was the Trump-Stewart speaking factors that acquired Gillespie shut and even perhaps to victory. It was embracing Trump’s agenda as personified by Corey’s platform.” 

On the day earlier than the election, a Morning Joe Panel on MSNBC confidently predicted a Gillespie win. Boy, had been they mistaken.

In actual fact, that Trump-Stewart technique backfired amongst voters of almost each demographic, and Northam received by 9 factors – a a lot wider margin than anybody anticipated. As UCLA Professor Matt Barreto wrote in a New York Occasions op-ed, election eve Virginia polling carried out for the AAPI Victory Fund, the African American Analysis Collaborative, America’s Voice, CASA in Motion, Latino Victory Fund, and NextGen America, discovered a lot proof of the backlash:

By a 23-point margin (52 to 29), whites in Virginia additionally stated the MS-13 advertisements turned them away from Mr. Gillespie, as did African-American and Asian-American voters by bigger margins. Information speaks louder than punditry, and our regression evaluation of survey knowledge paints a transparent image. 

Publicity to Mr. Gillespie’s MS-13 advertisements truly helped drive white college-educated voters away from the Republicans. After we analyzed findings for white independents and Republicans, voters who had been conscious of the MS-13 advertisements had been considerably extra prone to vote for Mr. Gillespie’s Democratic opponent.

It wasn’t simply the Governor’s race in Virginia the place racist advertisements had been used. A variety of the Republican candidates operating for the Virginia state legislature adopted Gillespie’s technique and shared his failures. In HD 93, Republican Heather Cordasco additionally tried to make use of Virigina’s nonexistent sanctuary cities in a failed effort to beat Democrat Mike Mullin. Scott Lingamfelter of Home District 31 misplaced his seat to Democrat Elizabeth Guzman after his try and equate undocumented immigrants’ potential to acquire a driver’s license with violent crime. Democrat Jennifer Foy received Home District 2 after an try and assault her assist for in-state tuition for undocumented college students fell flat. Total, regardless of the onslaught, Democrats picked up 15 seats, narrowing the GOP’s management from 66-34 to 51-49.

A number of Republicans made related assaults in 2019 campaigns. In 4 races for the Virginia Home of Delegates the place the Republicans used anti-immigrant messaging, Democrats received. In Home District 21, the blatant xenophobia of a mailer produced by the Republican Get together of Virginia caught the eye of the native press, and Democrat Kelly Convirs-Fowler held on to her seat anyway. In Home District 40, Republican incumbent Tim Hugo ran TV and Fb advertisements making an attempt to safe votes by stirring fears about MS-13. Hugo misplaced his seat to Democrat Dan Helmer. (Hugo is now a candidate for Lieutenant Governor and lately accused of launching a homophobic assault in opposition to one among his GOP opponents.) Mailers utilizing xenophobic messaging had been additionally utilized in Home District 28 in opposition to Joshua Cole and in Home District 85 in opposition to Alex Askew; each Democrats went on to win their aggressive races. 

Within the wake of these 2019 elections, Democrats took management of the Virginia State Senate and the Home of Delegates. With a blue triumvirate, Virginia Democrats enacted a number of essential pro-immigration legal guidelines, together with a state Dream Act. A lot of the GOP candidates together with Snyder, de la Peña oppose the laws. Senator Chase and Delegate Cox voted in opposition to the laws. As famous above, 94% of Virginia voters assist “Dreamers.”

Republicans have used the Trump anti-immigrant playbook for years now with out success. In addition to Trump’s loss in 2020, essentially the most obvious instance was Virginia. As of now, it certain seems to be just like the Virginia GOP is sticking with that technique – regardless of polls displaying robust assist, even amongst Republican voters, within the Commonwealth for immigration reform.